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Short-Term Regional Electricity Demand Forecasting in Argentina Using LSTM Networks

Oviedo, Oscar A.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study presents the development and optimization of a deep learning model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to predict short-term hourly electricity demand in Córdoba, Argentina. Integrating historical consumption data with exogenous variables (climatic factors, temporal cycles, and demographic statistics), the model achieved high predictive precision, with a mean absolute percentage error of 3.20\% and a determination coefficient of 0.95. The inclusion of periodic temporal encodings and weather variables proved crucial to capture seasonal patterns and extreme consumption events, enhancing the robustness and generalizability of the model. In addition to the design and hyperparameter optimization of the LSTM architecture, two complementary analyses were carried out: (i) an interpretability study using Random Forest regression to quantify the relative importance of exogenous drivers, and (ii) an evaluation of model performance in predicting the timing of daily demand maxima and minima, achieving exact-hour accuracy in more than two-thirds of the test days and within abs(1) hour in over 90\% of cases. Together, these results highlight both the predictive accuracy and operational relevance of the proposed framework, providing valuable insights for grid operators seeking optimized planning and control strategies under diverse demand scenarios.


Track Component Failure Detection Using Data Analytics over existing STDS Track Circuit data

López, Francisco, Di Santi, Eduardo, Lefebvre, Clément, Mijatovic, Nenad, Pugnaloni, Michele, Martín, Victor, Saiah, Kenza

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A track circuit is an electrical system that detects the presence of a train on the tracks by passing a current through the rails, which acts as a conductor. In its initial form, track circuits consisted of a battery and a relay with adjustable resistors to set the transmitted signal gain and receiver operating point. Sections of track are electrically isolated by insulated joints in each rail. The transmitted signal travels through a single rail, through the relay at the opposite end, then returning to the transmitter through the other rail. Track circuits follow the closed loop principle, which means that any failure results in the safest state (track occupied) as shown in Figure 1. Because of this, track circuits also provide detection of broken rails.Figure 1: Track circuit behaviour schema Nowadays, there are many types of track circuits. The last state of the art ones provide enhanced performance, integrating sophisticated signalling systems to improve operation and safety. Track-circuit failures have an important impact as they imply a stop of operations and an economic impact for both the railway operator and its customers (1).


Real-Time Multilingual Sign Language Processing

Moryossef, Amit

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sign Language Processing (SLP) is an interdisciplinary field comprised of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Computer Vision. It is focused on the computational understanding, translation, and production of signed languages. Traditional approaches have often been constrained by the use of gloss-based systems that are both language-specific and inadequate for capturing the multidimensional nature of sign language. These limitations have hindered the development of technology capable of processing signed languages effectively. This thesis aims to revolutionize the field of SLP by proposing a simple paradigm that can bridge this existing technological gap. We propose the use of SignWiring, a universal sign language transcription notation system, to serve as an intermediary link between the visual-gestural modality of signed languages and text-based linguistic representations. We contribute foundational libraries and resources to the SLP community, thereby setting the stage for a more in-depth exploration of the tasks of sign language translation and production. These tasks encompass the translation of sign language from video to spoken language text and vice versa. Through empirical evaluations, we establish the efficacy of our transcription method as a pivot for enabling faster, more targeted research, that can lead to more natural and accurate translations across a range of languages. The universal nature of our transcription-based paradigm also paves the way for real-time, multilingual applications in SLP, thereby offering a more inclusive and accessible approach to language technology. This is a significant step toward universal accessibility, enabling a wider reach of AI-driven language technologies to include the deaf and hard-of-hearing community.


Are Triggers Needed for Document-Level Event Extraction?

Shaar, Shaden, Chen, Wayne, Chatterjee, Maitreyi, Wang, Barry, Zhao, Wenting, Cardie, Claire

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most existing work on event extraction has focused on sentence-level texts and presumes the identification of a trigger-span -- a word or phrase in the input that evokes the occurrence of an event of interest. Event arguments are then extracted with respect to the trigger. Indeed, triggers are treated as integral to, and trigger detection as an essential component of, event extraction. In this paper, we provide the first investigation of the role of triggers for the more difficult and much less studied task of document-level event extraction. We analyze their usefulness in multiple end-to-end and pipelined neural event extraction models for three document-level event extraction datasets, measuring performance using triggers of varying quality (human-annotated, LLM-generated, keyword-based, and random). Our research shows that trigger effectiveness varies based on the extraction task's characteristics and data quality, with basic, automatically-generated triggers serving as a viable alternative to human-annotated ones. Furthermore, providing detailed event descriptions to the extraction model helps maintain robust performance even when trigger quality degrades. Perhaps surprisingly, we also find that the mere existence of trigger input, even random ones, is important for prompt-based LLM approaches to the task.


Fundamental Problems With Model Editing: How Should Rational Belief Revision Work in LLMs?

Hase, Peter, Hofweber, Thomas, Zhou, Xiang, Stengel-Eskin, Elias, Bansal, Mohit

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The model editing problem concerns how language models should learn new facts about the world over time. While empirical research on model editing has drawn widespread attention, the conceptual foundations of model editing remain shaky -- perhaps unsurprisingly, since model editing is essentially belief revision, a storied problem in philosophy that has eluded succinct solutions for decades. Model editing nonetheless demands a solution, since we need to be able to control the knowledge within language models. With this goal in mind, this paper critiques the standard formulation of the model editing problem and proposes a formal testbed for model editing research. We first describe 12 open problems with model editing, based on challenges with (1) defining the problem, (2) developing benchmarks, and (3) assuming LLMs have editable beliefs in the first place. Many of these challenges are extremely difficult to address, e.g. determining far-reaching consequences of edits, labeling probabilistic entailments between facts, and updating beliefs of agent simulators. Next, we introduce a semi-synthetic dataset for model editing based on Wikidata, where we can evaluate edits against labels given by an idealized Bayesian agent. This enables us to say exactly how belief revision in language models falls short of a desirable epistemic standard. We encourage further research exploring settings where such a gold standard can be compared against. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/peterbhase/LLM-belief-revision


Machines Do See Color: A Guideline to Classify Different Forms of Racist Discourse in Large Corpora

Gordillo, Diana Davila, Timoneda, Joan, Vera, Sebastian Vallejo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current methods to identify and classify racist language in text rely on small-n qualitative approaches or large-n approaches focusing exclusively on overt forms of racist discourse. This article provides a step-by-step generalizable guideline to identify and classify different forms of racist discourse in large corpora. In our approach, we start by conceptualizing racism and its different manifestations. We then contextualize these racist manifestations to the time and place of interest, which allows researchers to identify their discursive form. Finally, we apply XLM-RoBERTa (XLM-R), a cross-lingual model for supervised text classification with a cutting-edge contextual understanding of text. We show that XLM-R and XLM-R-Racismo, our pretrained model, outperform other state-of-the-art approaches in classifying racism in large corpora. We illustrate our approach using a corpus of tweets relating to the Ecuadorian ind\'igena community between 2018 and 2021.


GlotLID: Language Identification for Low-Resource Languages

Kargaran, Amir Hossein, Imani, Ayyoob, Yvon, François, Schütze, Hinrich

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Several recent papers have published good solutions for language identification (LID) for about 300 high-resource and medium-resource languages. However, there is no LID available that (i) covers a wide range of low-resource languages, (ii) is rigorously evaluated and reliable and (iii) efficient and easy to use. Here, we publish GlotLID-M, an LID model that satisfies the desiderata of wide coverage, reliability and efficiency. It identifies 1665 languages, a large increase in coverage compared to prior work. In our experiments, GlotLID-M outperforms four baselines (CLD3, FT176, OpenLID and NLLB) when balancing F1 and false positive rate (FPR). We analyze the unique challenges that low-resource LID poses: incorrect corpus metadata, leakage from high-resource languages, difficulty separating closely related languages, handling of macrolanguage vs varieties and in general noisy data. We hope that integrating GlotLID-M into dataset creation pipelines will improve quality and enhance accessibility of NLP technology for low-resource languages and cultures. GlotLID-M model, code, and list of data sources are available: https://github.com/cisnlp/GlotLID.


On Event Individuation for Document-Level Information Extraction

Gantt, William, Kriz, Reno, Chen, Yunmo, Vashishtha, Siddharth, White, Aaron Steven

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As information extraction (IE) systems have grown more adept at processing whole documents, the classic task of template filling has seen renewed interest as benchmark for document-level IE. In this position paper, we call into question the suitability of template filling for this purpose. We argue that the task demands definitive answers to thorny questions of event individuation -- the problem of distinguishing distinct events -- about which even human experts disagree. Through an annotation study and error analysis, we show that this raises concerns about the usefulness of template filling metrics, the quality of datasets for the task, and the ability of models to learn it. Finally, we consider possible solutions.


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Anomaly Detection using Ensemble Classification and Evidence Theory

Arévalo, Fernando, Ibrahim, Tahasanul, Piolo, Christian Alison M., Schwung, Andreas

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-class ensemble classification remains a popular focus of investigation within the research community. The popularization of cloud services has sped up their adoption due to the ease of deploying large-scale machine-learning models. It has also drawn the attention of the industrial sector because of its ability to identify common problems in production. However, there are challenges to conform an ensemble classifier, namely a proper selection and effective training of the pool of classifiers, the definition of a proper architecture for multi-class classification, and uncertainty quantification of the ensemble classifier. The robustness and effectiveness of the ensemble classifier lie in the selection of the pool of classifiers, as well as in the learning process. Hence, the selection and the training procedure of the pool of classifiers play a crucial role. An (ensemble) classifier learns to detect the classes that were used during the supervised training. However, when injecting data with unknown conditions, the trained classifier will intend to predict the classes learned during the training. To this end, the uncertainty of the individual and ensemble classifier could be used to assess the learning capability. We present a novel approach for novel detection using ensemble classification and evidence theory. A pool selection strategy is presented to build a solid ensemble classifier. We present an architecture for multi-class ensemble classification and an approach to quantify the uncertainty of the individual classifiers and the ensemble classifier. We use uncertainty for the anomaly detection approach. Finally, we use the benchmark Tennessee Eastman to perform experiments to test the ensemble classifier's prediction and anomaly detection capabilities.